While the automotive aftermarket is in a challenging environment, most notably within the last several years, the industry outlook continues to be a positive as it continues to be agile and able to adapt to changing — and oftentimes — difficult business situations.
Mike Chung, who leads market intelligence at the Auto Care Association, recently walked through data points of the 2026 Auto Care Factbook in a webinar to provide a picture of what’s going on in the industry and what it might expect in the future. Here are a few highlights.
The total size of the automotive aftermarket (passenger cars and light trucks) is expected to outpace inflation for the next four years through 2028. There are a number of factors that play into the forecast, including the growing vehicle age of the car parc.
For all light vehicles, the average age went up from 12.6 years in January 2024 to 12.8 years as of January 2025, led by passenger cars, which are a few years older than the light trucks. Of the entire car parc, about two thirds of its vehicles in the light duty category are 8 years old or older (and out of warranty) placing them in the aftermarket sweet spot for repair and maintenance.
Higher insurance and transaction prices hit consumer wallets
There are challenges, however, as consumers in today’s economy see higher interest rates and increasing insurance costs. “I think about the consumer’s wallet and a monthly budget and how much of that monthly budget is apportioned to a car, whether it’s a car payment, gasoline, repair, maintenance, accessorization or insurance,” Chung said. “And if insurance is increasing, it’s probably going to reduce spending in other categories.”
New vehicle shoppers are learning that transaction prices are higher, though most recently they have been somewhat flat in the range of $49,000. Regardless, Chung stated, vehicles are expensive, and that has been a difficult hurdle for many consumers to jump over in terms of changing their vehicle, as evidenced by the aging parc and vehicle registrations.
For some new vehicle buyers, Chung said they likely search for options then determine that a transaction cost is worth it and will switch insurance providers. “But again, that’s getting to the customer wallet, and insurance has been taking a larger share. And one of the things about these expensive vehicles and more technology being introduced is that the cost of collision repair has also been rising.”
Non-industry player activity
While the professional industry witnessed a 5.7% growth, the do-it-yourself (DIY) market had a “strong” 4.3% increase in sales, and both are expected to outpace the general economy next year. There are market indicators, and perhaps due to market uncertainty, that DIY growth will expand to more than 5% in the coming year.
“Certainly some things will play into that in terms of repair type. Specifically, the urgency — is it an emergency or is it something I can fix later? Is it something I can do myself? Is it something I can perhaps go from better to good or best to better?” Chung said.
More and more, non-traditional competitors are taking note and are selling parts direct to consumer, for either DIY or to bring consumer-sourced parts to service providers for professional installation.
“Lowe’s announced they would be selling automotive parts … perhaps encroaching on our space in the automotive aftermarket. I think about companies like Amazon and eBay that weren’t traditional aftermarket players, but are now significant players in the arena for the DIYer,” Chung said.
“So in the continually evolving environment, these are things we continue to watch, and that will affect the direction of DIFM growth and DIY growth.”