02/23/2026

Auto Body Consolidation Forecast 2026: Ready for Takeoff

Source: Body Shop Business

Last year was an interesting one for auto body consolidation. I think Netflix might want to consider a new series called “Wrecked Car Life” as I often feel I’m in the middle of a 12-part series as each month passes. 

Starting Off Strong

The year 2025 started off strong with acquisition levels similar to 2024. By June, however, many consolidators had put the brakes on making deals. Some buyers were still active but cautious with offers.  The last six months of a shop’s sales became a laser focus of concern for the buyer rather than the usual three-year trend.  Their investors and leadership were anxious concerning the decline of repairable cars and actual collision sales.  But what was driving this?

Collision Sales Dollars Normalizing

When COVID initially hit, most shops were operating with skeleton crews. Cars needing repaired were piling up. As time went on, a combination of this and other factors created the perfect storm. Our industry realized artificially increased collision claim volume. Why?  Reflecting back, this backlog of work and lifestyles were different during COVID than they are today or were pre-COVID. 

Initially during the COVID frenzy, many people didn’t work for many reasons.  Once the hysteria cooled down, most people’s routines changed dramatically from pre-COVID life. Many people not working or working from home were provided with freshly minted free time to go to the park or the beach or go out on the boat/ Many started to travel by car, and most people were driving vs. flying when it came to travel because most people at that time were concerned about being in confined spaces. Money was plentiful with the government injecting cash into everyone’s pockets. Americans had more free time and discretionary resources than they ever had in the past. All of these unintended consequences trickled down into many industries including collision, temporarily increasing sales.

Fast forward to today, the economy is starting to recover and people are back to work. Americans have for the most part returned to their routine of pre-COVID life.  As a result, we’re seeing a normalization of collision sales that are in alignment with the pre-COVID era. In the time between COVID and current day, we’ve realized significant inflation and increasing repair costs. It’s expected that the collision industry is now at or near normalized sales levels and/or may increase 10% due to inflation and increased repair costs.  ADAS calibrations, parts price increases and repair complexity are mostly driving the increases.

The Big News

On the heels of SEMA Week and the MSO Symposium, Gerber Collision & Glass announced that they would be acquiring Joe Hudson’s Collision Centers. This is the largest MSO-to-MSO acquisition to date, boasting 258 locations and combined synergies between $35 to $45 million in annual collision sales by 2028 (according to Boyd Group’s Q3 report from 2025).  

Gerber dropped the mic a second time in the same week when they announced that they were now trading on the New York Stock Exchange in addition to the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Caliber filed their IPO in July 2025.  Very soon, Caliber will be going public on the New York Stock Exchange as well. The timing for Caliber making their IPO will be as strategic as Gerber’s recent announcements were. Many have speculated the public IPO announcement will occur in mid-January 2026. 

Over the last few years, both Gerber and Caliber have slowed acquisitions and moved towards growth with brownfields and greenfields — the act of taking existing real estate (brownfield) and new purpose-built real estate (greenfield) as a means of growth rather than acquiring existing businesses.  

With the two biggest consolidators both going public, it’s likely they’ll pivot back to acquiring existing shops and realize a significant boost in growth from both strategies in 2026. Historically, it’s important to understand that any time a company goes public, their goal is growth and strength so that investors take notice and invest.  

The goal of this strategy is to create stock frenzy, rising stock value and positive energy around the stock itself.  Additionally, this energy and focus created with the twin IPOs will likely bring more private equity attention to our industry.

What Does 2026 Look Like? 

No one has a crystal ball, but we’re all watching the economy as it shifts into a more positive light.  The market seems to have bottomed out and is starting to rebound.  With collision sales now normalizing, leaders of the major consolidators are feeling confident and optimistic.  No matter the size of consolidator, large, medium, small and ultra small, they’re planning growth in 2026. Valuations likely will not look like what we’ve seen in the past due to declining sales, declining profits and overall market trends. Additionally, the market for sellers will not be as competitive due to the loss of numerous buyers from recent mergers and acquisitions activity. Thus, landmark deals like we saw in 2022-2024 likely will not exist.  

The second half of 2025 felt very similar to COVID/consolidation when things came to a halt for six months, fired back up slowly and then took off like a missile.  We’re seeing deals actively closing again and expect the first quarter of 2026 to take off like a rocket. These dynamics, however, will not be a wide, sweeping, broad stroke across U.S. Some markets will be stronger than others that may see no changes with valuations and/or speed of consolidation. For example, the Northeast continues to be a strong market with plentiful buyers and strong offers. VIVE and Driving Force are very active with continued plans of growth into 2026. 

If you’re a regional MSO, be prepared … the BIG offers will be coming your way and your phone will ring off the hook with inquisitive buyers. Deals will likely be unique in design and somewhat challenging to navigate. The simple cash deals are a thing of the past.

More shops are expected to sell in 2026 due to owner fatigue. Many single shop owners struggle to pivot with change that’s much needed in today’s collision business. This same group usually also finds it difficult to adjust their mindset, create cohesion among their team, create SOPs, maintain a consistent business model, finding a niche and adjust overhead, to name a few. Many of these shop owners have been in business for years, and face a natural age of retirement with no real exit plan. With all of the challenges shops are facing, this group of shop owners is beyond burned out and ready to get out. For sellers that fall into this category, this is a danger zone as they often leave money on the table in their haste when selling as they usually have no plan, education or help when selling.

This type of seller’s business is typically stagnant, and they usually do not look at what’s coming down the pike and/or are paralyzed with fear. They live in a bubble and often run their business off their checkbook or tax return or their accountant telling them they’re losing money. The ability to pivot and adjust in today’s collision center is a key element to success as shops face daily challenges.

Other Interesting Dynamics

While we’re watching Joe Hudson’s Collision Centers get acquired, others are growing and moving into their spot while many new small private equity (PE) and roll-ups are entering the market like we’ve never seen before. I’ve discovered nine new consolidators in the last 30 days. The number entering the market is staggering.

PE continues to be drawn to the collision space like a moth to a flame. As artificial intelligence (AI) has taken a front seat in every industry, PE has focused on service-based businesses that AI cannot replace. Other examples of these types of business include roofing, HVAC, electric, etc. These business types require real, living, critical-thinking humans to provide the revenue-generating services offered.  

Regional buyer growth is taking a front seat in many markets. Some of the regional buyers — B Street, G & C, Mr. Dent, Valley Collision, etc. — are growing at record speeds. Collision Leaders of Missouri was just injected with cash by PE and has plans for rapid growth for 2026.